Here is a quick recap of everything we learned about the economy this week which can help you when planning for your small business. First, inflation ticked higher as the consumer price index rose 0.6% in September, slightly above expectations. The increase was driven by a 7% jump in gasoline costs, but current available supply and easing tensions in the Middle East suggest that was the last of the big increases in energy prices for the time being.  Since the September rise, gasoline price have steadied. Gasoline in the next month’s CPI release will likely be up by a miniscule amount with futures prices pointing to a substantial seasonally adjusted 

Away from food and energy, core CPI edged up by just 0.1% for the third consecutive month. Both core and total CPI gains were just 2.0% over the past year, suggesting that the underlying pace of inflation remains subdued after another burst of energy price gains and severe volatility in food commodities.  On the production and manufacturing front, industrial production made an encouraging rebound in September, rising 0.4% after a disconcerting 1.4% plunge in August. While categories like motor vehicles, which had fallen a sharp 5.1% in August continued to decline (-2.5%), production showed widespread gains across categories and industries. Manufacturing production ex-autos rose 0.4% after a 0.6% drop. Mining output rose 0.9% following a 1.6% drop. Production over the course of the full third quarter posted a rare decline of -0.6% at an annualized rate. Importantly, demand indicators suggest this will mark a modest inventory correction rather than a new self-reinforcing downturn. This of course assumes no new fiscal or external shocks of great magnitude. In other news the housing markets showed some positive momentum while jobless claims sharply corrected for last week’s positive beat. Here’s what to watch next week: