UPDATE | Durable Goods Orders May Point To U.S. Manufacturing Slowdown
UPDATE | The data was just released and headline durable goods number printed came in at +1.1%, vs. expectations of a +0.5%. It’s not all sunshine and picnics though, as ex-transports (because they are volatile) printed =0.4% missing expectations of +0.7% although still up from the April -0.6%. Also missing estimates was shipments excluding non-defense at +1.6% vs. exp +1.9%
Basically, the number beats if you include sporadic fluff but misses on the core. Is this bad enough for more QE? Not yet.
We will update this with the data as soon as it is released at 8:30 along with analysis of the number. Bloomberg tells you what to expect, "orders for durable goods in May probably failed to make up for the worst four months since the recession, indicating U.S. manufacturing will cool, economists said before a report today. The projected 0.5 percent gain in bookings for goods meant to last at least three years would follow little change in April, according to the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Orders fell 6.6 percent in the first four months of the year, the weakest stretch since the same period in 2009, during the last recession.
A slowdown in global growth emanating from Europe may harm exports and prompt companies to curtail equipment spending, hurting sales at manufacturers like Joy Global Inc. (JOY)Combined with a slackening in demand from American households facing 8.2 percent unemployment, the cutbacks help explain why the Federal Reserve extended a plan to keep borrowing costs low..."
Source - Bloomberg